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Archive for 2008年4月

企业人的未来

2008年04月30日 1条评论

当日运程: 很快您就会在某件事上获得机会 (很快的哪件事啊)

前天一个未曾谋面的网友(在同一家公司打工),Facebook status改成了"What a shitty company I’m working for!!!"。他可能没有得到应得的回报。我猜是Political issue. 这个商业世界正在变得越来越现实。

昨天天有人问,MBA(Finance)毕业以后,有没有可能进入IT行业。这是一个很有意思的问题:Finance是个很宽泛的职业。似乎也能分成Inhouse/Agency两方面。 In house相对轻松, 但不知道需不需要做很多Dirty work。总之我感觉在未来,Corporate Finance的方向是outsourcing。–瞎说了。

每一个人都在所谓职业发展的道路上寻找自己的方向。我的方向呢?

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232年的奇书(4)

2008年04月29日 留下评论

当日运程: 很快您就会在某件事上获得机会

Book III似乎是讲资本开始积累之后,如何进入并影响整个社会的运行。没怎么看。直接进入Book IV,政治经济学。Smith认为两个系统(Commerce 和 Agriculture)影响着人们的财富积累的进程。首先讲得是商业系统,Smith论述了为什么禁止金银出口,并不能使一个国家的财富增加。接下来应该会推导出自由贸易的重要性吧,拭目以待!

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冲动是魔鬼

2008年04月28日 留下评论
当日运程: 对您来说,原则比任何金钱和成功都更有意义

阳明先生说行知合一才是重点。注重原则往往只能造就迂腐的书生。这是我最近想明白的。他的哲学带有辩证法的色彩,不大对。但是也要200多年后,由波普老爷爷来搞明白是怎么回事。

今天去麦麦,买了一份双人带两杯超超大可乐的套餐。买的时候没意识到可乐是这么的大。等拿上来了,才…无语,唯一只觉得 – 冲动是魔鬼啊!

今天又看了一下王守仁前辈的生平。特别是行知合一的问题。忽然发现和Porter同志的“什么是战略”讲的差不多。

阳明先生认为,不仅要有战略,还要有详细的解决问题的计划/行动。
Porter讲: Position -> Trade off  -> Fit, 构造企业的Fit,就是Planning/Action嘛。

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很累吗

2008年04月27日 留下评论

当日运程: 说到做到

从周二T-con开始,就有人说我听上去very tired 。然后好几个人在电话里都这么说。很奇怪,真的是这样吗?看来是电话有问题了。

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An Inconvenient Truth

2008年04月26日 留下评论

当日运程: 您善于交际,令人愉快

看了Gore叔叔的纪录片,典型的美国式大忽悠纪录片。超牛的幻灯片,精彩的数据,无数令人震惊的例子。我特好奇的一件事是他的分析所用的框架是什么。不过这都无所谓,重点是大叔的演讲真的很有感染力。演讲是一个体力活,几年间,做了上千场,每次都讲类似的东西,这需要多么巨大的热情!

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232年的奇书(3)

2008年04月25日 1条评论

当日运程: 您善于交际,令人愉快

快速的跃进至Book II。 终于,劳动分工之后,由于生产资料(原文是stock,不知道怎么翻译才准)丰富,资本(Capital)诞生了。已经进化到了资本主义萌芽了,哈哈。

前天的问题,找到答案。

1. How to value a firm?
3 ways in GE:
(1)DCF
(2)Financial Statement Impact
(3)Comparables

2.what is balance sheet/income statement/statement of Cash flow?

(1)The balance sheet reports the categories and amounts of assets, liabilites and stockholder’s equity at specific point in time.
(2)Income statement reports the gain or loss on sales of assets, quity in earnings of affiliates and other nonoperating incoe and expense.
(3)Cash flow reports all the cash inflows and outflows(classified among oeprating , financein and investment activities).

3. What is FCF?/How to calculate?
Cash from operation – the amount of capital expenditures required to maintain the firm’s present productive capacity.
Cash from operation – Capital expenditures

4. What is CAPM
A model that describes the relationship between risk and expected return and that is used in the pricing of risky securities.

The CAPM says that the expected return of a security or a portfolio equals the rate on a risk-free security plus a risk premium. If this expected return does not meet or beat the required return, then the investment should not be undertaken. The security market line plots the results of the CAPM for all different risks (betas).

http://www.12manage.com/methods_capm_zh.html

5. How to calculate WACC/Cost of Capital
A calculation of a firm’s cost of capital in which each category of capital is proportionately weighted. All capital sources – common stock, preferred stock, bonds and any other long-term debt – are included in a WACC calculation.

WACC is calculated by multiplying the cost of each capital component by its proportional weight and then summing:

WACC = (E/V)*Re +(D/V) * Rd * (1-Tc)

Where:
Re = cost of equity
Rd = cost of debt
E = market value of the firm’s equity
D = market value of the firm’s debt
V = E + D
E/V = percentage of financing that is equity
D/V = percentage of financing that is debt
Tc = corporate tax rate

6. What is the difference between FIFO and LIFO?

When price rising and stable or rising of inventorty:

                                LIFO     FIFO
———————————————–
COGS                           Higher    Lower
Income before tax              Lower     Higher
Income tax                     Lower     Higher
Net income                     Lower     Higher
Cash flow                      Higher    Lower
Inventory balance              Lower     Higher
Working capital                Lower     Higher

7. Compare with P/E ratio, P/BV ratio and P/S ratio?
A valuation ratio of a company’s current share price compared to its per-share earnings.In general, a high P/E suggests that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in the future compared to companies with a lower P/E.

A ratio used to compare a stock’s market value to its book value. It is calculated by dividing the current closing price of the stock by the latest quarter’s book value per share. A lower P/B ratio could mean that the stock is undervalued. However, it could also mean that something is fundamentally wrong with the company. As with most ratios, be aware that this varies  by industry.

While not quite as useful as the P/E ratio and the P/B ratio as a valuation measure, the price-to-sales ratio (P/S) comes in quite handy when evaluating unprofitable companies, which do not have a P/E ratio.

8. What is the current ratio/quick ratio?
A liquidity ratio that measures a company’s ability to pay short-term obligations. The ratio is mainly used to give an idea of the company’s ability to pay back its short-term liabilities (debt and payables) with its short-term assets (cash, inventory, receivables).

An indicator of a company’s short-term liquidity. The quick ratio measures a company’s ability to meet its short-term obligations with its most liquid assets. The higher the quick ratio, the better the position of the company.Also known as the "acid-test ratio" or the "quick assets ratio". 

The quick ratio is more conservative than the current ratio, a more well-known liquidity measure, because it excludes inventory from current assets. Inventory is excluded because some companies have difficulty turning their inventory into cash. In the event that short-term obligations need to be paid off immediately, there are situations in which the current ratio would overestimate a company’s short-term financial strength.

9. What is NPV/IRR?
The difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows. NPV is used in capital budgeting to analyze the profitability of an investment or project. NPV compares the value of a dollar today to the value of that same dollar in the future, taking inflation and returns into account. If the NPV of a prospective project is positive, it should be accepted. However, if NPV is negative, the project should probably be rejected because cash flows will also be negative.

While the internal rate of return (IRR) assumes the cash flows from a project are reinvested at the IRR, the modified IRR assumes that all cash flows are reinvested at the firm’s cost of capital. Therefore, MIRR more accurately reflects the profitability of a project.

For example, say a two-year project with an initial outlay of $195 and a cost of capital of 12%, will return $121 in the first year and $131 in the second year. To find the IRR of the project so that the net present value (NPV) = 0:

NPV = 0 = -195 + 121/(1+ IRR) + 131/(1 + IRR)2        NPV = 0 when IRR = 18.66%

Solving for NPV using MIRR, we will replace the IRR with our MIRR = cost of capital of 12% :

NPV = -195 + 121/(1+ .12) + 131/(1 + .12)2        NPV =  17.47 when MIRR = 12%

Thus, using the IRR could result in a positive NPV (good project), but it could turn out to be a bad project (NPV is negative) if the MIRR were used. As a result, using MIRR versus IRR better reflects the value of a project.

10. What is the DCF Model/DDM Model?

Valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of an investment opportunity. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis uses future free cash flow projections and discounts them (most often using the weighted average cost of capital) to arrive at a present value, which is used to evaluate the potential for investment. If the value arrived at through DCF analysis is higher than the current cost of the investment, the opportunity may be a good one.  DCF models are powerful, but they do have shortcomings. DCF is merely a mechanical valuation tool, which makes it subject to the axiom "garbage in, garbage out". Small changes in inputs can result in large changes in the value of a company. Instead of trying to project the cash flows to infinity, a terminal value approach is often used. A simple annuity is used to estimate the terminal value past 10 years, for example. This is done because it is harder to come to a realistic estimate of the cash flows as time goes on. 

A procedure for valuing the price of a stock by using predicted dividends and discounting them back to present value. The idea is that if the value obtained from the DDM is higher than what the shares are currently trading at, then the stock is undervalued. This procedure has many variations, and it doesn’t work for companies that don’t pay out dividends.

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北京街头偶见

2008年04月24日 留下评论

当日运程: 心比脑更有智慧

在雍和宫附近的街头看到好多鬼脸花。

20080418035

 

还有这种叫不上名字的绿色植物,仔细看,里面像包着一块水晶,其实是水。看来这是它保持水分的办法,进化真是奇妙的过程。

20080418037

 

最后,进化论和领导力 – 企业发展的过程更像是物种起源的中所描述的物种进化。要想做百年老店,必须要明白进化的道理 – 也许这中间存在着消亡,痛苦,重生…。在这样一个过程中,以目前的理论框架来看,没有比领导力更重要的东西了。将来也许会有更好的框架,希望能看到。

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